As we’ve been teasing on the news for the past few weeks, GPU pricing and availability continues a super positive trend that started early this year. With the cryptocurrency market pooping the bed this month and demand among gamers slowing in anticipation of next-gen products, GPU pricing this generation has never been in a better position.
In fact, by the sounds of it, supply has recovered to such a degree that retailers may be in a bit of strife trying to shift all current-gen stock before new GPUs arrive, and that’s why pricing continues to fall across the entire market.
Nvidia GPU Pricing Trends
June is the first month since the launch of Ampere that you can readily find an Nvidia RTX 30 series graphics card below MSRP.
Two cards currently meet that criteria: the recently launched RTX 3090 Ti, which was never sustainable at its $2,000 MSRP and currently sits closer to $1,650 new; and the RTX 3080 Ti, which is selling for 17% under MSRP. I wouldn’t go as far as to say $1,000 is a great deal for a 3080 Ti, but it’s great to see some of the inflated MSRPs fall to the sword of consumer demand.
Average Sale Price of eBay Completed Listings, New Products, 3rd Week of Month
(click to enlarge)
However, this below MSRP availability of Nvidia GPUs only applies at the higher end. If we take a look at all current generation cards, there’s still price inflation for many models that launched in 2020 or early parts of 2021. On average, Nvidia GPUs are selling for 9% above MSRP, but that inflation reaches 19% on average for the RTX 3080 and lower. This is despite another 10% average reduction in retail price over the last month.
With this level of inflation, each Nvidia GPU is being priced pretty much into the tier above it. The RTX 3050 should be a $250 GPU, but the cheapest models are available for $330, the MSRP of the RTX 3060. Then the RTX 3060 now becomes $380, close to the price of the RTX 3060 Ti. And this continues all the way up the stack to the RTX 3070 Ti, which is effectively priced like an RTX 3080.
Prices for these cards do continue to fall, so we believe MSRP levels are possible, but even in the conditions facing the market right now we still aren’t there. We’re very curious to see how low pricing can get before the next generation, because if pricing never falls to MSRP even in a GPU inventory clear-out, that will be strong evidence for the advertised prices being largely fake – though let’s be honest, they’re already fake enough as it is.
Anyone that bought a new Nvidia GPU just a few months back in March has likely been burnt pretty hard. GPUs like the RTX 3080 have come down from $1,100 to just $770 in a few months, and the RTX 3070 has fell from $860 to $580. It was certainly very dicey for people back in 2021, but it’s great to now see some reward for people that have decided to hold out and wait for as long as possible.
AMD GPU Pricing Trends
Average Sale Price of eBay Completed Listings, New Products, 3rd Week of Month
(click to enlarge)
On the AMD GPU side, the market has decided that the MSRP is no longer appropriate for most of the RX 6000 series. Seven out of 11 models are selling below MSRP right now, with the only significant hold-outs being the first models to be released, the RX 6800 XT and RX 6800. Some cards are up to 10% below the MSRP, like the 6900 XT and 6600. Even some of AMD’s recently released models like the RX 6650 XT couldn’t hold their MSRP for very long with some OEMs apparently just conceding they are unsellable at their launch price when other models are cheaper and perform similarly.
While pricing is generally sitting below MSRP for AMD Radeons, prices have also fallen less than Nvidia month on month, with just a 5 percent reduction on average. This points to AMD GPU pricing bottoming out and price reductions slowing, as we’ve come off an 8 percent drop in May, and 15 percent in April.
GeForce and Radeon GPU Price Points
Here’s how AMD and Nvidia’s lineups compare to one another. In most categories we’re seeing similar competition to last month. The most notable change at the high end is the price drop for the RTX 3080 Ti, which now sees it priced below the RX 6950 XT, which makes that AMD card look a bit silly.
The RTX 3080 is also now a more direct competitor for the RX 6800 XT, another match-up that looks unfavorable for the Red Team.
In the middle of the market, the RTX 3070 is essentially the only card occupying that $600 slot right now. The 6700 XT continues to be slightly cheaper than the RTX 3060 Ti, though the margin is shrinking.
Then in the lower parts of the market, Nvidia has improved its position to a small degree, but AMD looks reasonable with the 6600 XT coming in cheaper than the RTX 3060 and the RX 6600 offering more performance than the RTX 3050 around the same price.
As for whether you should buy any of these GPUs… my current advice for the market as it stands right now, and what we are expecting in the next couple of months. We’re going to split this up into four main sections…
To Buy or Not to Buy?
Nvidia High-end GPUs
If you’re interested in a high-end Nvidia GPU, it may be a good idea to skip the current generation under most circumstances. Products from the RTX 3080 and above are to be superseded within 6 months and the expectation is that next-gen products will be significantly faster.
The crypto market has also soiled its pants to such a degree that a fast rise in prices – like we saw around the launch of the RTX 30 series – is looking very unlikely just a few months after a big crash. Of course, we can’t know for sure what the crypto market will do, but weak demand for crypto will help stabilize GPU pricing around the launch of next-gen cards and should see prices return to MSRP more quickly than last time.
The reason why prices continued to be inflated for so long was largely due to crypto mining, so if that isn’t a pressure for this upcoming generation, expect better pricing and availability for GPUs.
The exception to this suggestion is if you see a significant discount that brings pricing well below MSRP from a reputable seller. We’re talking $500 RTX 3080s… that sort of thing, is probably where you could justifying buying. But at $1,600 for an RTX 3090 at the moment, that’s a hard pass.
Nvidia Mid-range and Budget GPUs
If you’re more interested in a mid-range or lower-tier Nvidia GPU, my advice is to wait a few more months. Pricing for Nvidia GPUs continues to fall at a steady pace, suggesting we haven’t hit the bottom yet, especially as many GPUs continue to be sold above the MSRP.
At this point you may as well wait for the bottom to be hit. However, unlike with higher-end cards, we think buying a mid-range GPU right now can be a sensible move if you find a good price, because we don’t expect Nvidia to release next-generation mid-range products until well into 2023, especially for below $350.
AMD High-end GPUs
For high-end AMD GPUs, our advice is similar to buying a high-end Nvidia GPU: these products are likely to be superseded by the end of 2022. While pricing for cards like the 6900 XT is more reasonable than some of Nvidia’s competitors, I still think now is a good time to simply pass over this generation and wait for what’s coming next.
If you do have $800 to $1,000 to spend on a GPU, buying now will probably see a significant amount of that money go to waste; again, unless you see a massive discount well below MSRP.
AMD Mid-range and Budget GPUs
For mid-range and entry-level AMD GPUs, this may be the only category where we’d say that buying now could be a reasonable choice. Pricing for AMD cards appears to be slowly bottoming out, so if you wait another month or two, you may only end up seeing a percentage drop in the single digits for pricing. We also don’t expect these GPUs to be immediately superseded, especially in the 6600 XT tier, so what is available in that sub $400 market is probably there to stay for some time.
Used GPU Pricing
Flipping over to look at the used market, if you have an older-gen graphics card, the market has quickly turned from a sellers market to a buyers market. Prices for Nvidia RTX 20 series cards are well below MSRP as they should be, with prices falling 12 percent this month. In fact, prices have basically halved since the beginning of 2022, so if you held off from selling you did miss an opportunity to cash in.
The GeForce GTX 16 series pricing has fallen by 16 percent on average, with over 20 percent drops for the 1660 series in particular. The entire lineup is now being sold used for at or below the MSRP, and you will no longer find 16 series cards above $200 on average. With the RTX 3050 sitting where it is, as well as pressure from AMD, it makes sense that you wouldn’t spend more than $200 on a used GPU from this family.
Last month we said we wouldn’t recommend buying a Pascal GPU as they’re too old and that’s still true today, though pricing is getting cheap for some models. Volumes for older cards like the GTX 1070 continue to be strong, which suggests that a lot of Pascal owners have finally decided to upgrade or get rid of their old GPU. With stronger supply comes a fall in price, with this series dropping by 16 percent on average.
With crypto mining somewhat dead, AMD cards from the RX 5000 series are flooding the market as these were particularly good for mining. Pricing fell a whopping 24 percent month on month for these, finally seeing prices below MSRP used. A fair warning that most of the cards sold through eBay in this Radeon series will be ex-mining models, as gamers still using these GPUs had plenty of chances to sell their 5700 XT to a miner last year and upgrade to a faster 6700 XT for free.
It’s a similar story for the old Vega and Polaris generations. The RX 500 series was popular among miners and prices have tumbled for those models, helping this family fall by 24 percent month over month. These prices are more suitable to the age and performance of these GPUs: the RX 580 8GB isn’t too bad at $150 used, which we’d certainly get that over the newer RX 6500 XT or RX 6400.
Overall it’s another good month for GPU pricing trends as expected, with ongoing steady price reductions. Supply is plentiful, it’s easy to find any graphics card model that you like, and some cards have halved in price since January which is a huge win for consumers. With the crypto market failing, it’s also setting up this next generation of graphics cards nicely, where without the mining threat it should be a more normal market in terms of availability and pricing after launch.
Perhaps the only negative is that feeling that it’s a little too late for this generation of cards, particularly on anything selling above $500. We can only recommend people buy some of the budget and mainstream priced models and nothing in the high end. The impending launch of new GPUs and pricing only just reaching the MSRP is not attractive enough in our opinion.
Having said that, there appears to be a lot of inventory sitting at retailers and manufacturers, and there are still a ton of mining GPUs yet to hit the second hand market. This could cause some of those graphics cards that should be a lot cheaper, to actually become a lot cheaper, especially once next-gen products are announced. Expect a rush of deals as retailers and even owners try to clear out their old models before taking too great of a loss.